Mar 03 2009
Diabetes and the Numbers
A friend of mine and I were discussing the Mega Millions lottery. I play pretty regularly, though I admit my chances are quite slim. She pointed out that the difference between the chances to win the lottery jackpot ( 1 in 175 million) are statistically no different from 0.
I thought about this because I understood where she’s coming from, I think. When doing scientific statistical analysis, very small numbers and zero are pretty much the same thing. Let’s say you’re testing a vaccine. Out of 10 million people, only one person seems to get better because of it. From the standpoint of a researcher, that’s the same as saying no one did; a statisically significant number did not appear. Flukes don’t count.
But if you’re that one guy, the chances are what doesn’t matter. Same as winning the lottery. Same as becoming diabetic.
According to the American Diabetes Association website , 8% of Americans have diabetes. 90-95% of those cases are Type 2 diabetes, the kind you can accquire. So that means if you’re an American and you’re in a room with 100 people, statistically it’s probably that one of them has Type 1 diabetes and seven have Type 2.
For most bets, a mere 7% chance of negative consequences is pretty good. For your life, especially if it’s voluntary, not so much.
What this means is that your chances of getting diabetes are non trivial. There are factors that raise it or lower it, like diet or exercise, but nothing that should make you completely discount it. Get checked out with your doctor regularly. Know how much sugar and carbs are in your diet. Exercise.
Because eventually, someone is going to pick a number seven or lower out of 100. Try to make sure it’s not you.
Good way to put it!